2017 Five Trends in Power Battery Industry
After an entire year of industrial restructuring and market fluctuations, the new energy vehicle and power battery industry gradually became clear at the end of 2016. The benefits of subsidy issuance, the ban on the ban on the three yuan, and the publication of the fourth batch of new energy vehicle promotion catalogs are favorable. The industry is filled with new vitality.
In the upcoming 2017, the industry will face more severe challenges. The pressure of cost reduction brought by subsidy withdrawal, upgrading of industrial integration knock-outs, industrial application of new materials, fluctuations in raw material prices, and upgrading of smart manufacturing will become the industry in 2017. 5 Mainstream trend.
Drop in cost pressure
With the retreat of subsidies, reducing costs will become the biggest pressure for power battery companies in 2017. The price requirement for battery manufacturers for OEMs is 35-40% lower than this year. Many members of the G20 Lithium Summit believe that this will be a huge challenge for domestic power battery companies.
While subsidy retreats, raw material prices continue to rise. This intermediate price difference needs to be absorbed by companies in the industrial chain. Members of the G20 Lithium Summit expect that there will be periodic losses in the power battery companies in 2017. After this stage will become a key threshold for the survival of power battery companies.
How to reduce costs? First, to break the monopoly of the material link, and at the same time build an ecological chain of battery recycling, and truly achieve recycling; Second, to achieve large-scale manufacturing, on the basis of battery standardization, through large-scale Mass production, minimizing costs. Both of these require the joint efforts of industrial chain companies.
GGII believes that under the cost pressure of automakers, the gross profit of power batteries will decline significantly in 2017, and the prices of raw materials will also steadily decline with the gradual release of production capacity. In the future, The focus of the reduction in the cost of the power battery is reflected in three aspects. First, the scale effect appears; second, the increase in the manufacturing qualification rate; and third, the increase in automation.
Industrial integration knockout upgrade
According to GGII's data, up to now, the number of domestic power battery companies has reached 145, and it is expected to reduce to 85 by 2018.
The top five power battery companies have basically been set up, but the pattern will fluctuate greatly. In the next few years, the main variables affecting the industrial structure include government-led procurement, battery technology level, price competition based on industrial chain linkage, and scale effect. Wait. Enterprises that can form a comprehensive competitive advantage in terms of price, technology, and safety will be quickly implemented. The survival of three- and four-wire power battery companies will be severely squeezed. It is foreseeable that in the coming 2017, the industry will reshuffle. Will come early.
In the competition of the power battery industry, the ecological advantages generated through the industrial chain cooperation will obviously be more competitive, fully benefit the driving forces of policies and markets, and make full use of the synergies and convergence of seemingly, supporting industrial chains, capital, and business models. The company will quickly seize the market.
New material industrialization application challenge
Since 2016, many power battery and related material companies have accelerated the industrialization of new materials, including high-nickel ternary, silicon-carbon anode, three-layer composite diaphragm, new lithium salt and other new materials are undergoing industrial gear shift speedup. .
Most of them are upgrading the power battery materials. In addition to the introduction of ternary materials on the technical route, they are also accelerating the industrial application of new materials such as ceramic separators, silicon carbon negative electrodes, and graphene conductive agents.
It is foreseeable that the materials will gradually evolve from lithium iron phosphate/graphite, ternary, high-nickel ternary/silicon carbon to solid lithium, and air metal batteries. During the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” period, members of the G20 Lithium Summit will work on high-nickel ternary/silicon carbon battery R&D efforts and strive to achieve the 350Wh/kg target.
While enhancing performance, how to ensure maximum security is still the core proposition that power battery companies are concerned about. GGII reminds that while the performance is improving, safety issues can not be ignored. As the proportion of new energy automobile market grows, 2017 is expected to increase. There will be a round of power battery safety and peak sales, companies should focus on risk control.
Raw material price fluctuation warning
Driven by rising prices of lithium carbonate, copper foil, and other core raw materials including lithium hexafluorophosphate, electrolytes, and cathode materials, there have been price fluctuations at different levels. This downstream lithium-ion battery company has exerted tremendous pressure.
In fact, a reasonable increase in prices can be resolved through internal digestion and gradual conduction. However, the large price fluctuations will bring great risks to the company's inventory and capital chain. As the industry shuffles, the supply relationship is expected to continue Adjustment.
It is expected that with the gradual release of new production capacity in 2017, raw material prices will gradually return to rationality, but we should be alert to fluctuations. Irrational price fluctuations are not conducive to the healthy development of the entire lithium industry. How to build a good development environment and enhance the competitiveness and concentration of China's lithium industry requires a high level of cooperation in the entire industry chain.
Enterprises must establish deep strategic binding relationships with suppliers and customers in the development of the market. At the same time, they can also conduct internal and external integration to defend the supply chain and avoid the risks brought about by market supply fluctuations.
Smart Manufacturing Upgrade Trend
Focusing on the large-scale intelligent development needs of the power battery industry, the transformation and upgrading of the equipment sector will be a major trend for the industry in 2017.
Large-scale manufacturing is not only reflected in high-speed, high-precision, but also in a high degree of stability. In fact, improving the stability of manufacturing equipment is a task that needs to be tackled for a long time in the lithium-electric equipment industry. The main purpose of intelligence is to introduce digital technologies. The principles and methods of big data analysis and artificial intelligence improve the quality of manufactured products. The intelligence itself is decomposed into unmanned, visual, and informatization.
From the point of view of large-scale intelligent manufacturing maturity and level, it is still in the state of primary intelligence. Only by connecting the devices through the network, can the basic state be perceived, and the production statistics, quality statistics, basic diagnosis and traceability of equipment can be realized. In the end, it is only able to achieve a complete upgrade of the lithium process. On this basis, through continuous optimization, it can finally achieve 99% control of the lithium battery manufacturing process and truly realize intelligent manufacturing.
Source: China Energy Storage Network